Do Pasture Values Follow Grain Land?

SUMMARY  
Pasture and cropland values in Saskatchewan move in the same general direction, but not at the same pace and not for the same reasons. Cropland responds to global grain markets, while pasture responds to cattle margins, drought cycles, and carrying capacity. This article explains why the two markets often diverge and why pasture value is driven more by stewardship and infrastructure than speculation.

Featured In: Saskatchewan Stock Growers Association – Beef Business Magazine (November 2025 Edition, Page 26)

Why the Connection Exists and Where It Ends
Most people assume all farmland moves together. When grain land rises, pasture follows. When it drops, pasture drops. But that isn’t the full story.
Over a century of Saskatchewan land data and several U.S. studies show that while pasture and cropland do move in the same direction over time, they aren’t twins. Their connection is real, but it’s loose, delayed, and driven by different forces.

What the Research Shows
Economists Davis and Adjemian (University of Georgia, 2023) studied U.S. farmland trends and found that a 1% increase in cropland values leads to about a 0.6–0.8% increase in pastureland values. In other words, cropland tends to lead, pasture follows, but at a slower pace and smaller scale.
Another long-term analysis by the USDA confirmed that cropland values are higher in every region and usually grow faster. Pastureland lags because its income potential is smaller, less subsidized, and more weather-dependent.
So yes, there’s a link but it’s more of a shadow than a mirror. Although no specific studies have been completed in Canada, that has been our observation and experience as well.

Why It Matters Here
In Saskatchewan, cropland and pastureland are tied by both geography and economics.
When grain prices climb, farmers bid higher for every acre, and that wave pushes into mixed and pasture areas. Some grain producers seed marginal land to crops; others buy adjoining grass, not to use it, but just to control the whole block.
At the same time, higher grain prices raise feed costs, which puts pressure on cattle margins. That tension keeps pasture values from climbing as fast as cropland.
The opposite happens during cattle upswings. When calf prices surge and feed is affordable, ranchers compete more aggressively for grass. That demand filters into land values, even if cropland prices stay flat.

Different Cycles, Shared Ground
Cropland values follow global markets for commodity prices, interest rates, and, to a lesser extent, government support programs. Pasture values follow cattle cycles, forage conditions, and water.
That’s why the two markets can decouple. In 2021–22, drought reduced carrying capacity across much of the province, yet cropland prices kept climbing. Farmers still chased grain land. Cattle producers tightened herds.
A pasture’s worth isn’t found on a chart. It’s in pairs, days, grass, water, and infrastructure.
How many pairs can it support? For how many days? How efficient is it to manage and handle livestock?
Those fundamentals drive value more than global markets ever could.

What Producers Should Watch
1. Grain land direction: Big shifts in cropland still ripple into the pasture market, especially around mixed areas.
2. Cattle margins: Rising calf prices and strong demand for feed drive pasture values more than interest rates do.
3. Drought risk: Reduced grazing days cut carrying capacity and stall value growth, even in high-price years.
4. Infrastructure investment: Water, fencing, handling facilities, and access roads are the new “yield.” They’re what hold value when prices soften.

The Bottom Line
Pastureland follows grain land, but only partway, and never on the same timeline. Grain land responds to speculation; pasture responds to stewardship.
If grain land corrects, pasture may wobble but won’t necessarily fall the same way. Strong cattle prices, efficient infrastructure, and limited supply can keep it stable.
For producers, the takeaway is simple: watch the trends, but manage for resilience.
Keep improving carrying capacity, protect water, and invest in infrastructure. Those fundamentals do more to preserve value than any market cycle ever will.
Because in the end, grassland rewards management, not momentum. The land still teaches the same lesson it always has: continued care beats chasing the market.

Written by Tim Hammond, PAg, B.S.A. (1991)
President, CEO, and Broker, Hammond Realty
30+ years specializing in Saskatchewan farmland sales, valuations, leasing, and advisory. Founder of Western Canada’s leading farmland brokerage, with expertise in market analysis, pasture and cropland valuation, and farm transition strategy.

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